Umamusume: Pretty Derby doesn’t run a 50/50. It doesn’t ramp your odds up the longer you go without a hit, either. The global release uses a flat-rate system: every single pull on a Spotlight banner gives the featured character or support card exactly a 0.75% chance, whether it’s pull number one or pull number 190. The only backstop is a hard cutoff at 200 pulls, where accumulated Exchange Points let you claim the featured unit outright. That’s a different shape of math than the soft-pity curves most gacha games run, and it changes what a “worth it” pull actually costs.
Here’s the short version before the full breakdown: the guaranteed worst-case cost for a featured 3-star Umamusume or SSR support card is 30,000 Carats, or roughly $420 at Umamusume’s standard exchange rate, according to PC Gamer’s F2P cost breakdown. But because the featured unit can also drop naturally at 0.75% per pull well before you hit that ceiling, the expected cost (the amount you’d pay on average across many attempts) works out closer to 104 pulls, or about $218. That gap between “worst case” and “expected case” is the whole story, and most coverage of this game skips it.
What Are Umamusume’s Actual Pity Odds?
On a Spotlight banner, the featured 3-star Umamusume (the top character rarity) or the featured SSR support card lands at a flat 0.75% per pull. Any 3-star Umamusume, including non-featured limited units, sits at 3% per pull. Those numbers are confirmed independently across multiple guides tracking the current banner cycle, including Fdaytalk’s rate breakdown and a Times of India esports explainer covering the same banner mechanics.
What makes Umamusume’s pity odds worth explaining on their own is what’s missing. There’s no soft pity, meaning the game never quietly boosts your rate after a stretch of bad luck the way Genshin Impact-style systems do. There’s also no 50/50 coin-flip mechanic once you land a top rarity. You either pull the specific featured unit at 0.75%, or you don’t, every single time. The hard pity at 200 pulls is the only mechanic that changes the odds picture, and it doesn’t raise your per-pull chance. It just gives you a deterministic exit at pull 200.
How Umamusume’s Pity System Differs From Soft-Pity Games
Most popular gacha titles use a curve. Your base rate for the top rarity sits low for the first stretch of pulls, then climbs sharply once you cross a “soft pity” threshold, until it hits 100% at a hard cap. Layered on top of that is usually a 50/50: your first top-rarity pull has a coin-flip chance of being the featured unit, and if you lose that flip, your next top-rarity pull is guaranteed to be the featured one.
Umamusume skips both of those layers. The 0.75% featured rate and 3% any-3-star rate stay completely flat from pull one through pull 200. There’s no rising curve to game and no coin flip to lose. Community discussion threads on the game’s Steam forums describe it bluntly: one widely-quoted player note put it as “it’s a hard pity yes, I should have said there’s no soft pity,” which matches what the guide sites report. The tradeoff is that a flat 0.75% rate feels harsher in the short run (you can go dozens of pulls with zero building momentum toward a hit) but the math evens out differently than a ramping system once you calculate the full expected cost, which the next several sections walk through.
The Official Pull Rates for Every Rarity
The table below lists the confirmed Spotlight banner rates for both the character-scouting track and the support-card-scouting track, since Umamusume runs the two as parallel banners with matching rarity math.
| Rarity | Featured unit rate (per pull) | Any unit at this rarity (per pull) | Rate per 10-pull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-star / SSR (top) | 0.75% | 3% | 3% (not boosted on 10-pull) |
| 2-star / SR (mid) | 2.5% (featured SR) | 18% | 97% (guaranteed SR+ in every 10-pull) |
| 1-star / R (base) | n/a | 79% | n/a |
The one soft guarantee baked into the system sits at the SR tier, not the top rarity: every 10-pull carries roughly a 97% chance of including at least one SR or better, according to the rate tables published by Fdaytalk. That’s a floor against the worst outcome (an all-R roll), but it says nothing about landing the specific featured 3-star or SSR you’re chasing. That part still runs on the flat 0.75%.
What Are Exchange Points and How the 200-Pull Hard Pity Works
Every pull on a Spotlight banner earns one Exchange Point (also called a Clover or Exchange Point depending on the guide), regardless of what you actually roll. Once you’ve banked 200 points, you can trade them directly for the banner’s featured 3-star Umamusume or featured SSR support card, no roll required. That’s the entirety of Umamusume’s pity system: a currency you accumulate one point per pull, redeemable for a guaranteed copy of the featured unit at 200.
Points Are Banner-Locked
Exchange Points don’t carry over between banners. Whatever you’ve accumulated is tied to that specific Spotlight run, according to Bo3.gg’s mechanics breakdown. If you stop pulling before a banner ends and haven’t spent your points, they’re gone once the banner rotates out. There’s no stockpiling points across multiple characters the way some games let you bank pity currency indefinitely.
No Rate Increase Before Pull 200
This is the detail that trips up players coming from other gacha games. Reaching pull 150 or 180 doesn’t nudge your odds upward at all. Your 0.75% chance on pull 199 is identical to your chance on pull 1. The only thing that changes is your Exchange Point balance, which is a separate, deterministic counter running alongside the RNG, not a modifier to it.
Is There a 50/50 in Umamusume? Setting the Record Straight
No. Umamusume has no 50/50 mechanic and no “guaranteed next featured unit after a loss” rule. When you roll a top rarity (3-star character or SSR support card), which unit you get is governed purely by the flat percentages in the rate table above, not by a coin flip layered on top of a successful roll. Getting a non-featured 3-star doesn’t change anything about your next pull’s odds. There’s no chained guarantee waiting for you.
This is worth stating plainly because most gacha odds discussions online default to 50/50 language, and applying that framework to Umamusume produces wrong numbers. The only guarantee in this game is the Exchange Point redemption at 200 pulls, and it works nothing like a coin-flip pity carryover.
The Pity-Cost Table: Pulls, Carats, and Real Dollars
Umamusume’s premium currency is Carats. A single pull costs 150 Carats, and a 10-pull costs 1,500 Carats, figures that line up with the 30,000-Carats-for-200-pulls math reported across F2P guides. Using PC Gamer’s reported blended rate of roughly $21 per 1,500 Carats, here’s what different pull counts cost in-game and in real money, alongside the cumulative probability of having already landed the featured unit naturally by that point (calculated from the flat 0.75% rate).
| Pulls made | Cumulative chance of natural hit | Carats spent | Approx. USD spent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7.3% | 1,500 | $21 |
| 30 | 20.2% | 4,500 | $63 |
| 50 | 31.4% | 7,500 | $105 |
| 75 | 43.1% | 11,250 | $157.50 |
| 100 | 52.9% | 15,000 | $210 |
| 150 | 67.7% | 22,500 | $315 |
| 200 (hard pity) | 77.8% natural / 100% with redemption | 30,000 | $420 |
Two numbers in that table matter most. First, by the time you’ve spent $210 (100 pulls), you’ve only got a 52.9% shot at having pulled the featured unit naturally, essentially a coin flip. Second, even at full hard pity ($420, 200 pulls), roughly 22.2% of players will still be relying on the guaranteed redemption rather than a natural hit, since 0.9925 raised to the 200th power works out to about 0.222. That’s the mathematical fingerprint of a flat-rate system: no acceleration, just a straight line up to the guarantee.
Step-by-Step Expected Value Calculation
Expected value here means the average number of pulls (and dollars) a player spends to land the featured unit, accounting for the fact that some players get lucky early and others burn all the way to hard pity. Here’s the calculation broken into steps, using only the published 0.75% featured rate and the 200-pull hard pity ceiling.
- Step 1. Treat each pull as an independent event with a 0.75% (p = 0.0075) chance of the featured unit. This is a truncated geometric distribution, since a player stops pulling for this unit either at their first natural success or at pull 200, whichever comes first.
- Step 2. The formula for expected pulls under a truncated geometric distribution is E[N] = [1 – (1-p)^M] / p, where M is the hard-pity cap (200).
- Step 3. Calculate (1-p) raised to the M power: 0.9925 raised to the 200th power comes out to approximately 0.222.
- Step 4. Plug into the formula: E[N] = (1 minus 0.222) divided by 0.0075 = 0.778 / 0.0075, which is approximately 103.75 pulls.
- Step 5. Convert to Carats: 103.75 pulls times 150 Carats equals 15,562.5 Carats, rounded to 15,563.
- Step 6. Convert to dollars at the $21-per-1,500-Carats rate: 15,563 divided by 1,500, times $21, comes out to approximately $217.88, rounded to $218.
That $218 figure is the expected cost across a large sample of players, not a promise for any individual run. Roughly half of players will land the featured unit for less (the median sits at 92 pulls, or about $193), while a meaningful share will grind the full distance to $420. The expected value math is what a rational budget should be built around, not the hard-pity ceiling alone, since that ceiling only describes the unluckiest outcome.
Five Worked Pull Scenarios With Real Numbers
These scenarios apply the same 0.75% featured rate and 150-Carat pull cost to five different stopping points, so you can see how the math plays out at each stage of a banner.
- Scenario 1: The single 10-pull. A player spends 1,500 Carats ($21) on one 10-pull. Their chance of landing the featured unit across those 10 pulls is 7.3%. They almost certainly walk away with SR-or-better filler (97% chance of at least one SR+ per 10-pull) but not the featured unit.
- Scenario 2: Stopping at 50 pulls. After 7,500 Carats ($105), cumulative odds sit at 31.4%. This is the point where roughly one in three players following this pattern will have already succeeded, while two in three haven’t.
- Scenario 3: Stopping at the median (92 pulls). At 13,800 Carats (about $193), a player has crossed the 50% mark: half of all players chasing the same unit under these odds will have hit by this point, half won’t have.
- Scenario 4: Stopping at expected value (104 pulls). At roughly 15,600 Carats ($218), this is the mathematical average cost across all outcomes, blending the lucky early hits with the unlucky long grinds.
- Scenario 5: Going to hard pity (200 pulls). At 30,000 Carats ($420), the player is guaranteed the featured unit no matter what, either because they rolled it naturally along the way (77.8% chance) or because they redeem the Exchange Points (22.2% chance).
Featured Character vs Featured Support Card Odds
Umamusume runs two separate Spotlight tracks that share identical math: the character scout and the support card scout. A featured 3-star Umamusume character sits at 0.75% per pull, and a featured SSR support card sits at the same 0.75% per pull, each with its own independent 200-pull hard pity and its own Exchange Point pool, per Game8’s pity tracking guide. That means chasing both a specific character and a specific support card on the same patch effectively doubles the total pull budget, since Exchange Points earned on the character banner don’t apply toward the support card banner’s pity.
For a player trying to secure both a featured character and a featured support card in the same event window, the expected-value math from the previous section applies twice, independently. At roughly $218 in expected cost per track, budgeting for both means planning around $436 in expected spend, not $420, since the two hard pity ceilings don’t share a pool.
How Much a Guaranteed Pull Actually Costs in 2026
Guaranteed only has one meaning in this system: hard pity at 200 pulls, priced at 30,000 Carats or approximately $420 based on the $21-per-1,500-Carats blended rate reported by PC Gamer. There’s no cheaper guaranteed path. Unlike soft-pity games where a rising curve makes pulls 60 through 90 progressively more likely to hit, every pull in Umamusume up to pull 199 carries the same 0.75% odds as pull 1. The only way the game hands you certainty is the full 200-pull redemption.
That $420 figure is also the number most F2P guides lead with as a warning, and it’s an accurate one for the worst-case outcome. What those guides tend to skip is that the expected cost sits about 48% lower, at roughly $218, because most players will land the unit through the flat 0.75% roll well before exhausting all 200 pulls.
Myths vs Facts About Umamusume’s Gacha
| Myth | Fact |
|---|---|
| Your odds improve the longer you go without a hit | False. There’s no soft pity. The rate stays flat at 0.75% from pull 1 to pull 199. |
| There’s a 50/50 chance the top rarity you pull is the featured one | False. There’s no coin-flip layer. The featured rate (0.75%) and any-rarity rate (3%) are separate, fixed percentages. |
| Missing the featured unit guarantees it on your next top-rarity pull | False. No loss-carryover mechanic exists. Every pull is independent until you either roll it or hit 200-pull redemption. |
| 200 pulls is the average cost to get a featured unit | False. 200 pulls is the guaranteed worst case. The expected (average) cost works out to about 104 pulls. |
| Exchange Points carry over to the next banner if unused | False. Points are locked to the banner they’re earned on and are lost if unspent when the banner ends. |
Is Pulling to Hard Pity Worth the Money?
The honest answer depends on how much certainty you’re paying for. Going from the expected-value stopping point (104 pulls, $218) to the guaranteed hard pity (200 pulls, $420) roughly doubles your spend to close out the remaining 22.2% chance you haven’t already hit naturally. Framed as cost-per-percentage-point, that last stretch from pull 104 to pull 200 buys you certainty at a much steeper price than the earlier pulls did, since the flat rate never accelerates to reward the extra spend.
For a player who’s already deep into a banner and sitting on a large Exchange Point balance, finishing the run to 200 makes sense since a big chunk of the 200-pull cost is often sunk already. For a player just starting, budgeting around the roughly $218 expected value, while treating $420 as the hard ceiling to plan for, is the more grounded way to size a spending budget for one featured unit.
F2P vs Paying: What the Math Means for You
Free-to-play players earn Carats through daily logins, race rewards, and story progress, and the same flat 0.75% math applies whether currency comes from playing or paying. The practical difference is pacing. A F2P player accumulating Carats slowly across a multi-week banner window is essentially running the same probability curve shown in the pity-cost table above, just spread across sessions instead of a single purchase.
Because there’s no rate escalation to wait out, there’s no strategic benefit to holding pulls and dumping them all at once versus pulling as currency becomes available. The math is identical either way. What does matter is deciding up front whether a given featured unit is worth committing to the full expected-value budget, since partial progress toward one unit’s 200-pull hard pity doesn’t transfer to a different unit on a later banner.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Umamusume have soft pity?
No. The featured-unit rate stays flat at 0.75% per pull from pull 1 through pull 199. There’s no rising-rate curve like the soft-pity systems found in other gacha games.
What is the hard pity in Umamusume?
200 pulls on a single Spotlight banner. Every pull earns one Exchange Point, and 200 points can be redeemed directly for the featured 3-star Umamusume or SSR support card.
Is there a 50/50 system in Umamusume?
No. There’s no coin-flip mechanic tied to top-rarity pulls. The featured rate (0.75%) and the any-rarity rate (3%) are fixed, independent percentages with no loss-carryover guarantee.
How much does it cost to guarantee a featured character?
The guaranteed worst-case cost is 30,000 Carats, roughly $420 at the $21-per-1,500-Carats blended rate reported by PC Gamer’s F2P guide. The expected (average) cost is lower, around 15,563 Carats or $218.
Do Exchange Points carry over between banners?
No. Exchange Points are locked to the Spotlight banner they were earned on. If you don’t spend them before the banner ends, they’re lost.
Is the featured character rate different from the featured support card rate?
No, both sit at 0.75% per pull on their respective banners, and each runs its own independent 200-pull hard pity with a separate Exchange Point pool.
What’s the chance of getting any SSR or 3-star, not just the featured one?
3% per pull, four times higher than the 0.75% featured-specific rate, since that 3% total includes the featured unit plus every other unit at that rarity.
Is Umamusume’s pity system better or worse than soft-pity games?
Neither, structurally, just different. A flat-rate system with a hard cap produces a lower expected cost than the advertised worst-case number suggests, while soft-pity systems concentrate hits closer to their pity threshold. Both eventually guarantee the unit, but the shape of the probability curve getting there differs.
